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Transcript

[00:00:00] Hey everyone! Happy May as this episode drops. Happy Cinco de Mayo if you are listening the day this comes out. And I don't know about you, but I can hardly believe it's May already this year is cruising right along and many of you are starting to hit the home stretch in your seasons. For many of you, your fiscal year end is on the horizon for students who listen. Because I know we have more and more students who listen.

Those pursuing arts management degrees and otherwise, you are coming to the end of the school year, likely right now, maybe taking finals these days. So all to say, collectively, we are starting to approach a time of the year that serves as kind of a natural reflection point, which is why I planned the topic we are going to talk about today. That topic is performing Arts predictions for 2025. And now here we are in 2026. And where are we now?

So just to give the context and background here, the past two Decembers I was invited by International Arts Manager magazine. It's a magazine in our field, which maybe, you know, if you go to a pap association performing arts presenters conference. If you go to a PAP, they do a big distribution of the magazine there at the conference every January.

I was invited by them by International Arts Manager magazine to write some predictions for the field. And they asked me this two Decembers ago was the first time. And they said, Aubrey, what are your predictions for the year ahead? At that point it was looking into 2025, and then they came back to me again this past December, December of 2025, asking if I would write or contribute predictions again for the field for 2026, the year we're in right now.

So this has been pretty fun to muse and predict what I think will happen. But I realized when they came back to me this most recent time that I didn't even know. I didn't even remember my prior year predictions and how they had turned out. Like I had to look it up. You know, a December 12 months later and look up what came true, what didn't.

So what I want to do today is just that I don't want these predictions to live. You know, in some article that comes out every new year or as the case may be, the past two New years, I want to dig into it. So that's what we're going to do today. We're going to look at these predictions. There are seven in total, three for 2025 and then another for predictions for 2026. And we're going to see how things have played out thus far and then how they're playing out currently in the year. We're in using this kind of natural, and reflection point that we're in right now.

Now, does anybody happen to listen to As these words are coming out my mouth, I can't I don't even know if this is going to be relevant for anybody, but does anybody happen to listen to Colin Cowherd, Colin Keller's podcast or radio show? It's called The Herd. It's like, the reason I'm hesitating right now is because it's like three hours of sports commentary every day. So I don't know what the Venn diagram is of listener overlap here between us, an arts management, arts administration, and the extreme sports enthusiasts that listen to hours and hours of him.

Colin Cowan talking about top sport stories and sports news of the day. But the reason I bring it up is because he does this segment called Where Colin Was right versus where Colin was wrong, where Colin was right, where Colin was wrong, and they play clips of the things he predicted and said he makes a lot of predictions, a lot of, I was going to say bold statements, for what the world of sports holds. And so they, they review these predictions is what I'm saying. And talk about what actually happened.

So that is what we were doing here. But, you have to picture this being said or introduced by like the most super bro dude voice saying he's it's always like we're Colin was right where Colin was wrong. So anyways, that's what we're doing today. Where Aubry was right, where Aubry was wrong with or without. Dude, bro, voice in your head is fine.

And, I also have something to help you as we do this. This is a free tool. If you want to track along with these seven predictions and assess or compare, where you are at your organization, how your organization is tracking compared to these predictions, because a lot of them are based on trends in the field. That is how we started the beginning of this year. And as you know, I'm always trying to, keep myself apprized of what is the latest data out there? What are the latest studies? What are the latest findings? What are the trends I'm seeing among the organizations I work with?

So, these predictions were based on, actual data and information and insight and based on things I see working or not working as the case may be. So if you want to take stock or want a tool to help you organize your thoughts around what is worth focusing on or prioritizing your organization as we go through this list today, this episode is a good one for that. And as I said, I have a free tool to help you do that. So go to my website at Aubrey Bergauer.com/53. That's slash five three for episode 53 and grab it right now.

It is essentially a summary scorecard, table or template version of these predictions I'm going to be talking through and including some notes on how you can start thinking through what applies to your organization and what starts really getting the gears turning for you. What might you want to prioritize as you're taking the summer ahead to think through? You know what are going to be our priorities for the summer and going into next fall, next season. So that's what that's for. You can, you know, track or Mark, I have a little drop down tool so you can kind of rate yourself if you want to do use it as a little self-assessment.

One more time that is Aubrey Bergauer.com/53 for episode 53. It's the free predictions assessment tool is what it's called. And it's Aubrey's top seven performing arts predictions assessment tool for your organization so you two can get more right than wrong. So that's the name of the game for today, how it started versus how it's going, I guess is another way to look at it. And we're talking arts predictions for our sector and checking in as we approach the end of our seasons, the end of the school year, fiscal year, etc..

Welcome to episode four of season six of the Off Stage Mike. When we are done with this episode today, we will already be halfway through this season. I am very glad you're here so let's get on it. Where Aubrey was right and where Aubrey was wrong.

I'm Aubrey Bergauer. And welcome to my podcast. I'm known in the arts world for being customer centric, data obsessed, and for growing revenue. I've been called the Steve Jobs of classical music and the Sheryl Sandberg of the symphony. I've held off stage roles, managing millions of dollars in revenue at major institutions. Then chief executive of an orchestra where we doubled the size of the audience and nearly quadrupled the donor base and wrote a bestselling book on the business of the arts. And I me here to help you achieve all these same kinds of successes.

In this podcast, we are sorting through data, research and business strategies from inside and outside the arts. Applying those findings to our work and bringing in some extra voices along the way, all to build the vibrant future we believe is possible for our institutions and for ourselves, is off stage administrators and leaders. You're listening to the offstage mic.

Support for this season of the offstage mic comes from Evolv Arts. One thing I've seen firsthand is that most CRMs make it really hard to run your org like a business. People ask me all the time, Aubrey, is there a CRM you actually recommend? That's why I want to tell you about Evolv Arts, an exciting new CRM that is revolutionizing the art space and the only one I have seen built specifically to make it easy to execute many of the strategies from my book.

Evolv Arts was created by people who were frustrated with the CRM at their own organization, musicians and board members with engineering and tech backgrounds. They created the tool that they needed, so it's built for modern use cases performing arts organization see all the time. It's extremely powerful, while still easy and intuitive to use. In less than a minute, you can send personalized emails to first time attendees, identify and target patrons in every segment of the long haul model, and share a discount code with lapsed ticket buyers, inviting them to come back. Their team is responsive and supportive. If you are having conversations about CRM at your organization, please check out Evolve Arts. That's evolve without the second E Evolve the Arts. Search them on Google for free demos or tap the link in the show notes for more information.

All right, so we are going to start with the predictions I made for 2025. So these were written in December of 2024. And there are three predictions total that I thought might take place in 2025. So let's break them down. The first is I said the current subscription model for arts organizations will continue to be tested. The subscription economy and membership economy is growing globally. That is a fact.

Now, this accounts for nearly 20% of all credit card transactions worldwide. If you read my book, or if you've listened to past podcast episodes where I talk about subscriptions, you've likely heard me share that stat before. So just to say it again, 20%. That is one fifth of all our credit card transactions as consumers go to our subscriptions and memberships like Netflix, Amazon, Grocery Delivery, whatever else we subscribe to in our life. For me, that includes toothbrush delivery, razor delivery, dog food delivery, like you name it, you know what I mean?

So globally this is growing. That is a fact. Yet despite the subscription economy, some call it membership economy booming. Many or even most. I would venture to say arts organizations are seeing the opposite. We are seeing subscription declines leading up to the pandemic. This is definitely a pre-pandemic phenomenon and especially post-pandemic. We talked about these trends in the first episode of this season, so if you haven't listened to that yet, go back. If you want the zoom out picture and latest data on all of that.

I went on to say in my prediction article, I said the institutions that embrace tenants of the modern subscription economy, such as opt out renewals and a strong onboarding experience will buck the industry trends. Meaning like the arts and culture, declining industry trends and take advantage of the broader global subscription model dominance. So let me unpack that a little bit.

Let me first define opt out renewals. So. Opt out renewals to me. And based on everything I've learned on the subscription and membership economy is the singular biggest difference between how we do subscriptions at arts and cultural organizations versus how kind of everybody else does subscription, certainly, versus how thriving, successful subscription brands do their subscription model. So what we do is opt in. We at the end of the season or whenever we announce our new seasons, we do the same thing for donations. Whenever it's time to renew, we ask everybody, would you like to renew? Would you like to opt in again to subscribe? Get your season ticket, your package, your donation, make your donation. And so that is completely opposite of like the modern best practice of what's happening everywhere else.

Okay, so the other thing I mentioned when I talk about tenants of the modern subscription economy, there are many, but a big second one in my mind. If moving to opt out renewals where the customer has to opt out right, like Netflix doesn't ask me every month, do you want to renew? I have to log in and opt out. Is the difference there? So the number two big tenant in my mind is strong onboarding.

So this one was so interesting to me as I was doing all of the research on this for my book. And what we normally do for onboarding a new subscriber could be a new pretty much a new donor as well. We'll talk about maybe those separately is typically what happens if it's a subscription. You know, they get the thank you email. They get the order confirmation. Maybe those are one in the same, maybe not. They off they get their tickets. Whether you send them as E-tickets or offer a subscription packages. Often we're doing like a printed, ticket that goes in the snail mail. That's kind of it. Maybe, maybe they get added to our pre performance customer service emails if you do that. That's kind of the extent of subscriber onboarding.

And typically for donations what's typical. They make the donation start. Similarly you get the order confirmation or transaction gift confirmation. And then you get, you know, a week later or whatever the tax donation letter receipt in the mail, not a lot else. If they qualify for donor event invitations, those would come in due course. Right. Like that's kind of I'm generalizing, but hopefully you're kind of nodding along. You're like, yeah, that's basically what we do.

So. Strong onboarding is actually the first step toward a strong renewal later. And I learned this. This is what the research bears out. This is what other thriving brands are doing. There's a whole bunch to talk about about what makes strong onboarding. But it's more than what we're doing now. Again, as a generalization painting with a broad brush more than what we're doing now, more than what most arts organizations are doing now, wrote all about it in my book. There's other podcast episodes on this, so it's all out there.

I won't get into it now, but the question for us now is, did this prediction come true? Well, yes, the organizations I know that are embracing these strategies, particularly opt out renewals and creating a strong onboarding experience. They are the ones bucking the trends. We are going to hear from a couple of them later this season. Our remaining four episodes this season, a few other organizations and I run it like a business academy are moving to this model. I teach and train how to do it, how to take little steps. So it's not so scary because I know it can be scary to really switch that. And in terms of the prediction, the ones that are taking those steps to mirror or emulate the modern subscription economy, they are the ones not seeing declines, but rather seeing increases in their subscribers. It's just modern best practice because it works. It is more effective.

Okay, that's prediction number one. Prediction number two I made end of 2024. Looking ahead to 2025 was I said there will be a splintering of audience development strategy. I remember thinking at the time, you know, some people are starting to change kind of their approach or mentality around audience development. That includes many of you listening, and some people are still just kind of continuing to do things the way they've always been done. And as I fleshed out the writing here, I said, quote, some organizations will choose to better center the customer and get serious about what the modern consumer needs and wants. When seeking a classical music entertainment experience, you can obviously swap classical music for whatever your artistic discipline is.

And I went on to say examples include updating the website to be extremely approachable, making ticket purchases and donations as easy and simple as possible. There are so much to say on this, but this includes your form, fields, every form field you add, you lose people. That's the short version of what the data show us. It includes having an excellent mobile experience, not a mediocre mobile experience. An excellent mobile experience, and using digital content as a platform for educating audiences rather than mostly using it for selling the next performance.

So, okay, I talked about the form fields. Every extra form field we have makes people drop off. We've got to remember that. Like, just don't try to capture every bit of information we can. We just need enough to get the transaction done. I know it's hard. I know it's hard, I know it's hard. But we have to have the discipline to know that by doing that, we get more transactions, more donations, more subscriptions, more ticket sales in the first place. And then when you combine that with a retention plan, like you're going to get that additional information later. Trust me, I've seen it.

Okay, approachable. I talked about making websites approachable. It means drop the jargon, drop the flowery language. I have, I think two different podcast episodes where I talk specifically about copywriting and the best practices today, what research shows about what to say, what not to say, tips and tricks to make our websites, clickable, consumable. All those things we want. Approachable also affects the photos we use. It's not just copywriting, you know. Who are we centering? That's that's really the question behind this prediction I wrote who are we centering? Are we centering only the artists? That's what we did for years and years and years. And it worked for years. And years and years.

So totally understand. But in 2025, as I was writing the prediction early end of 2024, it wasn't working so much anymore. So who are we centering today? Brands show pictures of their customers. That's what we should do. Show and feature photos of the types of people we serve. That is a huge difference. Or a huge indicator, maybe I should say, of if an organization actually centers the customer or not, are they only prioritizing the art, or are they prioritizing the people they serve? So many marketing studies back this up. This is true in 2024. When I first wrote it, it was true in 2025. And it is definitely true still today, mid 2026. Here.

These quote unquote little things I'm mentioning here, they are not little. That's why I'm taking the time to spell them out. They are hugely effective in terms of moving people through your sales funnel. Like if we can get just 1% more, 2% more, 10% more, whatever that case is for your organization, people moving through, clicking from that landing page to the sales path, looking for the sales path all the way to a complete purchase that adds up to a lot of money a year, trust me. Or if you don't trust me, run the numbers for yourself. What would that look like? Because the answer is it really moves the needle and they're almost all free to do every single one of these changes I'm listing so far.

So everyone, all of us basically say we have no money to invest. And I get it. I have run many teams at several organizations where I've been there. And you know, you feel I felt it were you? It's like we just don't have an extra dime to spare. Like, I know that feeling. I've been there. So that's why I love this kind of stuff, because it costs $0 to change the words we use swap into more images on our website, and if you don't have audience shots, cost a few hundred dollars to hire a photographer for a, you know, a performance or an event. And I've been there to where I was like, wow, we got nothing. Okay, fine, we're going to spend just a little bit to get this fixed.

So, okay. The rest of the prediction, I said, quote, those organizations that do those things will see growth in their audiences and other organizations. Here's the bifurcation I was talking about. Other organizations will continue to dig in their heels, ignoring these newer essential best practices necessary and will market largely the way they have been. Those organizations will continue to see audience attrition. If you keep doing things the way they've always been done, you're going to keep seeing the same kind of results. If you want to see different results, you got to do something differently, right? That's what this whole prediction is about. And really just looking at, like I was saying, the bifurcation or splintering is the word I wrote in the prediction originally of organizations choosing their path on this one and seeing drastically different results.

So did this prediction come true? Yes. Kind of. I'm being really dogmatic on this one because I think it's so important to our bottom line. But why I say yes kind of is because, you know, did a lot of organizations who didn't do these things continue to see audience attrition? Yes, that part is true. Was there a splintering of strategy? That's where I'm like, yeah, I guess so. If you define okay, think about a splinter. If you define splinter as a small piece of wood coming off of the main larger piece of wood, then yeah, that's a good analogy. I think that holds up here. I had hoped when writing this prediction that it wouldn't be like a small offshoot or splinter. I guess I'd really hope that the splinter would be bigger, more of bifurcation as I was using that word.

So I think that's why I say yes, kind of it came true. And maybe continues to play out too. So I'll just say, I do encourage you to go back, listen to those past previous episodes on how to do this kind of work or read it in my book. A lot of it's laid out there because this is everything I'm saying here. These are like the, I already said, cheap free changes we can make, but they're also kind of like the fastest way to tweak a strategy. It's like one of the fastest things we could do at our organization changing copy on our website, changing some photos.

So. And yet and yet the adoption rate, the I was going to say feels kind of low. I don't have numbers to put behind that. So that's not fair for me to say that. But I guess what I do want to say is I know it can be way more fun and sexy to talk about programing or other distractions like new logo or even new website. I totally see organizations spending tons of money on their website redesign, when the reality is they could have made these free changes we're talking about here and saved a lot of time, money, grief. It's through these types of iterations that you learn what you need in a new website later, eventually. So I don't think these are steps that can and should be skipped, but I understand it's a little more dry when you're asking yourself, did 1% more people click through this thing? So but that's that's the work. That's the work that works. So are the organizations doing these things, doing the work that's not always sexy or fun. Getting distracted by shiny object syndrome. Those ones, are they seeing growth in their audiences? Yes, that is for sure. True. I hear about these successes all the time among Academy participants, and they are really, setting the example in my mind and just crushing it. So that's the work or at least part of the work. And it's work that works.

All right. Prediction number three. This is the last prediction of last year for 2025. And I said traditional tried and true funding sources will continue to dry up. I wrote quote, corporate sponsorships in the arts have been on the decline for years and will continue to be increasingly difficult to obtain as corporations invest what's now their marketing dollars rather than a philanthropy budget. In channels with larger audiences such as sports and social media. So two things have moved. Their budget has moved from philanthropy. This is what we do because we're a good community, corporate citizen, moving to a train of thought of, no, this is a marketing spend for us that has some sort of altruistic angle to it. And with that shift, when it come becomes a marketing shift, not a we're a great community citizen focus then then it makes sense that their priority becomes what are the bigger numbers? How do we how do we get that? You know, message in front of or advertisement for the most people possible? Well, that's where sports or other brands become more desirable places to be a sponsor. So okay, I wrote similarly government funding for the arts in the UK, Germany and the U.S, among other countries has seen significant declines since the pandemic year, a trend we will see other countries follow. So many of us had wonderful government support during the pandemic, including here in the United States. And when I wrote this again late 2024, I was predicting a decline in that. So we'll come back to that.

Arts organizations I said, that become laser focused on cultivating and stewarding individual donors, where wealth has grown significantly over these same past few years, we'll have more success meeting their contributed revenue goals. So did this prediction come true for this one? I say in some ways, yes, and in some ways no. So let me start with the note. The way this prediction did not totally come true is in the government funding piece, I'd say. So. I wrote that countries like the U.S., UK and Germany, you just heard me say it, have seen significant decline since the pandemic year and other countries will follow. And I am happy to say this hasn't exactly played out that way. Thank goodness. Right. In January of this year, 2026, Arts Council England announced a 1.6 billion pound increase in their funding for arts organizations across the country. I obviously don't live in the UK, but I feel like that's a huge victory and that comes after some very steep, steep cuts in recent years. So this is a really happy headline in my opinion, based on the understanding, that I have of the, of the situation.

So sidebar, I just want to say the actual press release headline from like Gov.uk is this they said, quote, government announces bumper 1.5 billion pound package to restore national pride. They didn't say to restore funding levels. They said to restore national pride. And I just love that their PR angle is that increased funding for the arts restores all national pride. So, there's so many things to say about that, but I don't hate it really is where I'm going with this. I don't hate it as an outcome for investing in the arts on a national level. So there you go, I digress, bringing it back home to the U.S, there is a whole rabbit hole we could go down right now on U.S government funding for the arts and the role of the US government in the arts at the moment. That should could be a whole other episode. So that's not the direction we're going to go today, but what's important to this conversation we're having right now, and this prediction I wrote in late 2024 is that fast forward to the Trump administration now, and several of you already know this. But just to lay it out, the president proposed excluding the National Endowment for the Arts and the NEA and the National Endowment for the Humanities, the NIH, from his fiscal year 2026 budget.

Now, it's not the first time those agencies were under threat of being gutted and even fully eliminated. If we think back to the first Trump term, which honestly is part of what informs my original prediction in the first place, I thought, we've seen it before, we're going to see it again. But what is so striking here is that the House of Representatives approved a bill that's January of this year, January 26th. The House approved a bill that would continue fully funding both agencies. I was this is another happy surprise. I was surprised, but it is a happy surprise. The Senate, then approved that same appropriations package and they didn't just like kind of approve it. It was approved 82 to 15. In a world where we know both, houses of Congress are so divided along party lines, that's not what happened here. So this means that both Democrats and Republicans voted for this, pushed it through with pretty strong bipartisan support against what was coming out of the white House. This is not meant to be a political statement. This is me just sharing, how this played out on this issue. And I think it's really important to underscore and for us to see and understand, because in the midst of what has been some very difficult and challenging times will say, for arts and culture over the last year or so, particularly at the federal level, for me, this was a ray of light, and there is so much at stake at the national level right now as it relates to our cultural landscape in this country.

I've got another podcast episode fully dedicated to advocacy, and a full chapter on my book about why it is so critically important. That's episode 23. If you want to go look it up, I'm speaking to the board chair at the San Diego Zoo who has a huge, huge advocacy component to what they do, so please use those resources if you are wanting more on that topic. But for now, I just want to say that I'm just so glad that for this particular part of the prediction, I was wrong. Happy to be wrong on this one. Now let's talk about the other part of the prediction, the part that was correct. If you listen to the first episode of this season, this is another one we learned in that episode that basically every kind of funding source on the whole has been going down. So corporate sponsorships or what I wrote about, I wrote about them being harder to obtain. Yes, 100%. That is true. When organizations contact me and they say they want to increase corporate sponsorship, I'm like, why it is the hardest type of money to raise. So spend that time and effort instead on individual giving where, as I said in the prediction, individual giving is a category that just has way more growth potential. And the reason for that is I know right now so many of us are experiencing inflation and you know, our dollar doesn't go as far. So I'm not talking about the affordability crisis that is present and affecting many of us. I'm talking about the wealthy getting wealthier. And I am not here to say that I want the 1% to be even richer. So please don't hear me saying that. What I am saying is that given that this is the case before us, this is the hand we're dealt right now. It's our job and our responsibility to to see that, to see that the opportunity lies for nonprofit arts and cultural organizations to go after it. So in a world where there is limited time, staff resources, funding and you can't do it all, chase individual giving, not corporate giving or some of these other harder to obtain funding sources.

Last thing on this. I have a whole long haul model that helps lay out how to do just that. How to go after individual donors, how to grow the donor base. It's a free blog article if you google it. Aubrey Bergauer, our long haul model, it'll come up, we can link it in the show notes as well. And I teach it in full in the Academy, which is now, by the way, now trademarked. Earlier this year, the long haul model was trademarked as a bona fide consulting tool for growing audiences and the donor base. So really happy to be able to share that with you all. The point is. Talk about organizations having more success meeting their contributed revenue goals. That's how I wrote it in the prediction, those organizations implementing something like the long haul model, are really seeing incredible growth and results because of their focus on individuals, which, as I'm saying this out loud now, I'm realizing really matches kind of prediction. Number two, who are we centering for? Centering our customer, centering our audience that then tracks with this prediction here. That's how we grow.

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So all of that were the 2025 predictions and how those predictions played out. A year later. This past December, International Arts Manager magazine came back to me and asked, Will you do this again? So here are the predictions I made for 2026, the year we are in now. There are four of them. First prediction I made for this year is that retention overtakes acquisition as the primary growth engine. Okay, this is really picking up right where we left off. Okay. The year before, you heard me say how I wrote about the splintering of audience development strategy. We just talked about that, and I wrote this prediction this way because I was trying to hit that audience development again, knowing this is still going to be an important topic. It's not going away anytime soon. It just matters to so many arts organizations and like every arts organization for the most part, because we always need and want audiences, it's just going to continue to be part of our of our priorities.

So this year, I wrote it like this. I said, more organizations are realizing that getting new audiences, new subscribers, and new donors every year won't solve their financial challenges. Instead, the organizations experiencing the most growth are the ones focusing on retaining those new people and building loyalty rather than churning through them. Retention, I wrote, is the path to financial resilience. Okay? If you've been listening along this season, you have heard this, this chorus before. Okay, so let me say it again. Retention is the path to financial resilience. We have said for years and years, decades at this point on the whole, as a as a field, as an industry of arts and culture, particularly performing arts. But but true for that's not true for true for visitor based and exhibit based institutions as well. We have said, quote unquote, we need new audiences.

And I cannot stress enough that this is not really what the data show. The very first episode of the season where I shared all that national data. I get into this, too. There's just so much evidence out there that we are actually getting new people to come. Okay. Just to the tune of thousands and thousands of tickets a year. And the data show both the nation national data and the hundreds of arts organizations I worked with at this point, that we're just really good at getting new people to come. Excellent. Even so, I wrote, quote more organizations are realizing that getting new audiences, subscribers, and donors every year won't solve their financial challenges. Meaning going after new, new, new all the time clearly isn't making life easier for artistic institutions. If you are still facing financial challenges and you think you need new audiences, or you think you need new donors, like just like rewind 30s and listen to this part again, that's not what's going to get you there.

We know how hard it is to balance the budget these days. I know it, you know it. We know costs are rising and the business model is being pushed to the brink. This is just really top line conversation in our field right now. And those challenges are why a lot of you are here right now listening. So if we are getting new audiences and new donors and the financial equation is still not working for us, what now? The problem is, like I said, we're collectively good at getting new audiences, new donors, even sometimes new subscribers. But we are collectively pretty not great at retaining them. Okay, you've heard me say it many times now. The first step to being healthy is to stop the bleeding. That's another way to say this stop the leaky bucket is another analogy I use, but in some ways I kind of like stop the bleeding because I just think it's that's more urgent as an analogy. And that kind of urgency is necessary for a lot of us.

Deciding that we're not going to say we need new audiences, it is a shift in strategy. I'm like, completely aware of that. It's a shift in thinking at the institutional level. It's really hard to just be a department within an organization that thinks that. So I understand these are big shifts to think about, but that shift is what results in growth. I've just seen it time and time again now. So here we are almost halfway through the calendar year as this episode drops, and we're about to have a few episodes dedicated to new case studies and examples of this playing out in a good way. So the prediction was retention overtakes acquisition as the primary growth engine, a prediction already true for some. And my most sincere hope for all of you listening right now is that it proliferates.

Okay, prediction number two for 2026 I baby, we've not talked about AI yet. I don't think this whole season AI assisted productivity becomes standard. Was the prediction I wrote. Quote I often preach that there aren't a lot of ways arts organizations can save money, but the fast rise of AI is changing that. Not for artistic decision making, but for streamlining administrative load and freeing staff to do higher value work. Many individuals are dabbling in AI, wrote. But the real gains in time savings and efficiency will come for teams that adopt early and embrace this technology for an operational leg up. So I'm not going to spend a ton of time on this one, because we are going to have a whole episode dedicated to this topic of AI before the season ends.

I cannot wait to bring you the expert guest I have lined up for that, but I will say this in a world where our arts organizations are so strapped for cash, time, resources, all the things I keep saying where there's never enough hours in the day right? AI is a tool available to help provide some relief. I didn't write about it for 2025, I definitely did as we headed into 2026. I know there is so much unknown out there with AI. I know it's like the Wild West still, but the tool, any tool itself, generally speaking, is neutral and it's up to us. How are we going to use it? How are we going to deploy it? Just to share a little bit about my own business, AI has been a huge boon of efficiency to my own business. At a baseline level, I think arts organizations should be using AI to assist with repetitive tasks that can be automated.

So what do I mean by that? For example, if you have a human monitoring the general hello at inbox or info at inbox, whatever that is for your organization. You know, they're handcrafting responses to every inquiry that comes in. For the most part, I now believe that is a complete waste of time, complete waste of time and waste of money. It costs us to pay for that work to be done. I am not saying I want AI to eliminate some staff roles. That is not what I'm saying. I know that's what the tech companies are doing and that's what some other industries are as well. That's what some of the other predictions out there are saying is how AI is going to replace all these jobs. And that may be true for those industries. I'm not disputing that.

But for us in arts and culture, we are already so lean. I'm not talking about eliminating jobs. I'm talking about freeing our staff, freeing our staff brains, freeing our staff, time for higher level work. And that gets me really excited when I think about eliminating tasks that are repetitive. Or training an agent in my own business to continue the info at hello at example, I now have an agent that drafts every single response to that inbox, and then a human just reads it, make sure it's correct before it goes out the door. So things like that are saved hours and hours in the day. I used to have, I used to pay a lot of money for an assistant and pay very little anymore because we just don't need the time. So I hope that helps. Just give an idea. I could talk a lot about copywriting and, analysis, I think is a great, great use of AI. So anyways, I can go on and on, but like I said, we're going to do a full episode on that, so not to worry. Lots coming for you there. I just really, really hope that this prediction comes true by the end of the year, which is that AI assisted productivity becomes standard for our arts organizations.

Okay, prediction three of four for 2026 I said community engagement matures into a full organizational strategy. I'm laughing because I'm like, wow, that was really aspirational. Even as I read it now, I'm like, that was so aspirational. So I do hope this becomes true. We'll see what I mean. And what I'm trying to say in this one is that I don't believe that community engagement is the job of one department. I believe it should be an organization wide strategy. Here's what I wrote. I said community engagement spans everything from education programs to civic involvement to being more representative of the people we serve.

More organizations are recognizing that these are big initiatives no longer adequate to relegate to one department bearing the name community engagement, but rather an organizational strategy of community centered inclusion affecting every team and every team. Members work. There's a lot packed into that sentence. But here's the deal if we care about things like inclusion, that's not one department's job, not even when organizations were adding Dei departments and roles back in whatever year those were 20, 20, 20, 21, whatever. Did I ever think that, you know, one department was going to solve this for us? It's bigger than that. And also it's harder than that. Let's be honest here. It's let's be real about this, because it has to be a current that runs through the culture of the entire organization. This is definitely a more difficult approach than making it someone's job or one department's job. And that extends not just to inclusion, but to deepening our connection with the community around us.

And it's because it's not easy that I described it as maturing. Maturing into a full organizational strategy is what I wrote, and my dream or goal for any institution I lead at least, is that every person on staff, on stage, on the board can see how their role plays a part, and deepening the organization's connection to the community. Period. Does not matter. What department they're in, does not matter. Again, what role? On stage, off stage, in the boardroom. I want every person to understand how their role plays a part in representation and inclusion, in setting culture and in building relationships with others who live and work around us. That is just a core belief I hold. So when I talk about it like that, it's a strategy. It's a strategy because it doesn't happen by accident. It doesn't happen on its own, but it is a way to. Organically yet intentionally. These things are they go hand in hand, organically and intentionally have tentacles stretch beyond the walls of the institution, and it's smarter.

And this goes back to why it's a strategy. It is smarter when it's not just one team or one department that does that. But when everyone on deck is an ambassador for the institution in this way, I'm describing forging connections with those around us right. So the work then becomes, I would say, the company culture part for sure. I already mentioned that. And to putting concrete examples to this aspiration. So I know I'm talking kind of high level, maybe even a little Pollyanna about it. But in other words, like what does this actually look like? So here are just a few to help get the gears turning for you. For the board, I think that means tapping into their network. It's also extending and expanding the board to make sure that group is reflective of all the facets of the community around us, and then those folks also tapping into their network. For me, that's how I look at this for staff, it means, all right, here we go, folks. It means community engagement isn't just only going to schools for an instrument demonstration for an hour. Okay? Don't hate me for saying that. That could be part of it. I'm not saying don't do that, but it's also about like, what is every staff person doing when they're outside the office?

What groups are they a part of? How do we bake those activities into, you know what? What are people's everyday lives? How do we bake those activities into the deliverables of their job? I know some of you are like, wow, she's really gone off the deep end. But the point is, how can people show up as their whole self? We want that in our workplaces, but we want that outside. I want that outside the workplace too, because then they're bringing their work and that part of them back out into their network, their community, their friend group, their family group, all of that.

So what other groups are they a part of? And just kind of side note that maybe isn't a side note, cause it's another thing I care a lot about. Of course we want to still respect work life balance, so please don't hear me say about tampering with any of that. But I do like to say, work life integration, not balance, just because it points right back to this very topic for me, that if we're proud of our work and feel safe to bring our whole self wherever we go, then every person we meet, every person in our life essentially becomes someone who can learn about our organization, and we learn about the people around us in return. Because of our 9 to 5 or however many hours. It's just a big part of our identity that we can share if we want and if we feel safe to do so. So again, maybe I sound a little Pollyanna talking about this, but, to me that is a higher calling for our work. And to me, like I said, it is definitely a strategy and a strategy that elevates our work as well. So I hope this is making sense. I hope it resonates with someone.

Okay, let's bring it home. Prediction four of four for arts organizations this year, I wrote organizations that embrace a larger digital media strategy. We'll see more sales today. I wrote this a quote today. Up to two thirds of a brand's marketing isn't done by the brand itself, but by others that means word of mouth. That means reviews we receive not even just critical reviews, but reviews could be blogs or other things people put out there and other social media channels beyond the institutional account. So end quote, that's what I wrote to back up the claim or prediction. That stat comes from the book Marketing Rebellion by Mark Schaefer. Even Peter Drucker, kind of the godfather of modern management practices, has talked about this. Several other studies and sources point to this, too. If you Google this stat, the point is, and I've been talking about this for years now, but the point is we don't control our own marketing and message the way we think we do.

Up to two thirds of a brand's marketing isn't done by the brand itself. So how does this play out in 2026? That's the theme of the whole season changing the narrative in 2026. In 2026, it means we have got to get away from this idea that the brand account is our only mouthpiece. What do I mean? To be more specific? I mean, so many organizations pretty much only distribute information via their main brand channels. Like, I know on the surface you're like, yeah, duh, that makes sense. But I'm talking, you know, the website, they're branded social media accounts, like at your org name on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, wherever else you have accounts. And then what happens then the new hot social media channel comes along and we feel like we are quote unquote, doing it right. If we add that channel to our social media mix as well. At your org name on TikTok threads, whatever channel comes out tomorrow, right?

Given how marketing works in 2026, we've already established up to two thirds of all marketing is not done by the brand itself. So given that as our baseline that we're working with here, having the brand more places is not the right play is what this production is about. We are seeing this organically already in the arts marketplace, in our field and in the rest of my production. I wrote, quote, A growing number of artistic directors, CEOs and artists are cultivating strong online presences and arts organizations that leverage these channels as part of a broader digital media and PR strategy, rather than leaving it to the individuals without institutional support, we'll see their marketing reach expand exponentially. End quote.

That last part is what I want to underscore, leveraging these channels as part of a broader digital media and PR strategy, rather than leaving it entirely to the individuals themselves without institutional support. That's the difference here. There are so many artists already today, right here, right now. You all know this listening that have big followings and they get zero support for content from their institution. This kind of blows my mind. It's kind of wild to me because it's a missed opportunity. That's why on the, admin side, I see a growing number of leaders developing their social media presence all the way up to CEOs at large major institutions. That is a win in 2026. In my book, that they are jumping on this bandwagon to develop their personal channels and also some many, all maybe even of these CEOs could really use institutional support for that too. Meaning again, being part of the bigger communication strategy in their messaging and content. So they're not on their own putting things out there. It strengthens instead what they're able to put out there.

So to be clear and put a finer point on this, I am not talking about posts that say come to this weekend's performances. That's not it. Okay? I am talking about in an age where media coverage, traditional media coverage for the arts is on the decline, media in general is under attack in many ways right now. We cannot depend on only the brand account or only on traditional earned media earned press coverage to tell our stories. For us, that's that's again the way we did it for so long. And today we can't rely on that anymore. But collectively, what we do have and can rely on is that we have a lot of followers at any given organization among the people who are within it, who can help tell that story. Those stories, our stories, and that needs institutional support. Not expecting everyone to be an individual creator on their own, no matter how good they are, how big or small they're following. We got to give support for this because to me, that's just a stronger PR strategy, stronger use of time. Instead of adding one more brand account on whatever the new channel of the day is.

So if you're hearing this and thinking, Aubrey, we can barely manage all of our brand social channels as it is, how could we possibly add more? How could we possibly add support for individuals within our institutions? I would say see the previous prediction on AI and how AI needs to be a part of the workflow to help with mundane or repetitive or low level tasks, in order to free people up for higher level work. Just like this. I'm not saying social media strategy is a low level task, just the opposite. It's really not. But I can help us figure out. You take this message, rework it for our artistic director, musicians who want to post about it, and CEO if they want to post about it. Right. Like that's that's a task you could give an AI tool, for example. So okay, I also want to say for me personally, I don't think the brand account needs to be on every channel out there.

So there's that too. I think. This is in the category of we got to know what to say no to, and we can't say yes to everything. And there's a lot also to say about institutions that put this giant, important body of public facing work and storytelling on one person that we call a social media manager or coordinator. Like I said, this is not low level work, and I personally think the strategy is so much more important than the weight that we give it in terms of title and pay, but maybe that could potentially be a tool on their own. Podcast episode two. So for now, if you want more on this, what I can give you is I write about activating what I call our influencer army in my book, I expound on this, how to do it in my run it like a business academy as well. We've got a whole module on maximizing social media strategy and how do we do that today? And last, the point of the prediction is to say organizations that embrace this larger digital media strategy I'm talking about, we'll see more sales.

That's the point. Not those I did not say, not those who add a ton of work without purpose to get more pointless content out there. Right? So it's those who see that we have assets available to us that just haven't been fully tapped yet, which spells opportunity. That's the point. And that I believe the data and trends tell us is true. It's about embracing the strategy beyond just brand channels, beyond traditional media, traditional earned media, and knowing that that's not how consumers operate in 2026. People follow people. People respond to people. So there you have it.

We just covered seven total predictions, three from last year and how those predictions played out on the whole, all of 2025, plus four more predictions that we are in the middle of seeing play out right now, real time, halfway through this year, we are in. And the question is, where do you fall? How is your organization tracking for each of these? If you want that scorecard to help assess how you're doing or even just want that to help, with note taking for this episode, you can still grab it on my website. It's Aubrey Bergauer.com/53 for episode 53. Use it for yourself to do the exercise as a thought exercise for yourself, or use it to help start conversations with your team, or maybe your board, or use it to help to spark discussion with others in your organization about what you could or should be prioritizing and really stimulate, people's thinking on that however you'd like to use it. It is there for you, completely for free. One more time. Aubrey Bergauer.com/53. Let me know how this lands for you at Aubrey Bergauer our on socials. I would love to hear about it.

And now we are officially midway through this season of the off stage Mike, I hope you are getting lots of value, inspiration and ideas on what changing the narrative for your organization looks like in 2026. Thanks for being here. I'll see you next week. That's all for today, folks. Thanks so much for listening. And if you like what you heard here, hit that button to follow and subscribe to this podcast. And if you've been around for a few episodes now, would you please consider leaving a quick rating or review? I really can't thank you enough for your support in this way. To all of you, one more time. Thanks again. I'll see you next time on the Offstage Mic.

This season of The Offstage Mic is produced by me, Aubrey Bergauer. Our additional production support as well as editing is by Morreale Digital. Our theme music is by Alex Grohl. Additional support this season comes from Sandy Kobashi and Johan Dewey. This is a production of Changing the Narrative. This podcast is brought to you by Morreale Digital. We all want our arts organizations to reach wider audiences and engage our communities, right? Well, a video podcast is a great way to do that. But as I know too well podcasts to take a lot of time and technical skills to do well. That's why I partnered with Morreale Digital. They handle the technical elements of production, editing and distribution so I can focus on showing up and sharing ideas that matter. To learn how podcasting can help you reach and engage your audience, visit Morreale Digital dot ca slash podcast. That's Morreale Digital dot ca slash podcast or hit the link in the show notes.